{"id":346,"date":"2025-12-09T13:49:52","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T13:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/09\/federal-reserve-set-to-cut-rate-but-may-signal-a-pause-to-come\/"},"modified":"2025-12-09T13:49:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T13:49:52","slug":"federal-reserve-set-to-cut-rate-but-may-signal-a-pause-to-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/09\/federal-reserve-set-to-cut-rate-but-may-signal-a-pause-to-come\/","title":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve set to cut rate but may signal a pause to come"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, Associated Press Economics Writer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 The Federal Reserve faces an <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/economy-jobs-inflation-8a0060c2f52f884ed3489450a66619b8\">unusually contentious<\/a> meeting this week that will test Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s ability to corral the necessary support from fellow policymakers for a third straight interest rate cut.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"related left\">\n<h2 class=\"widget-title\" data-curated-ids=\"\" data-relation-type=\"automatic-primary-section\">Related Articles<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li> <a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/2025\/12\/09\/gofundme-crowdfounding-essential-needs-rises\/\" title=\"More people crowdfunded for essential needs in 2025, according to GoFundMe\u2019s year-end report\"> <span class=\"dfm-title metered\"> More people crowdfunded for essential needs in 2025, according to GoFundMe\u2019s year-end report <\/span> <\/a> <\/li>\n<li> <a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/2025\/12\/09\/today-in-history-december-9-a-charlie-brown-christmas-premieres\/\" title=\"Today in History: December 9, \u2018A Charlie Brown Christmas\u2019 premieres\"> <span class=\"dfm-title metered\"> Today in History: December 9, \u2018A Charlie Brown Christmas\u2019 premieres <\/span> <\/a> <\/li>\n<li> <a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/2025\/12\/08\/trump-deportations-el-salvador-probe\/\" title=\"Judge wants whistleblower to testify in contempt probe of Trump official over planes to El Salvador\"> <span class=\"dfm-title metered\"> Judge wants whistleblower to testify in contempt probe of Trump official over planes to El Salvador <\/span> <\/a> <\/li>\n<li> <a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/2025\/12\/08\/elections-colorado-clerk\/\" title=\"Former Colorado clerk will remain in state prison after a federal judge rejects her bid for freedom\"> <span class=\"dfm-title metered\"> Former Colorado clerk will remain in state prison after a federal judge rejects her bid for freedom <\/span> <\/a> <\/li>\n<li> <a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/2025\/12\/08\/affordable-care-act-enrollment\/\" title=\"Affordable Care Act enrollment is slightly ahead of last year so far, despite expiring subsidies\"> <span class=\"dfm-title metered\"> Affordable Care Act enrollment is slightly ahead of last year so far, despite expiring subsidies <\/span> <\/a> <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/aside>\n<p>The Fed\u2019s 19-member rate-setting committee is <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/economy-jobs-inflation-8a0060c2f52f884ed3489450a66619b8\">sharply divided<\/a> over whether to lower borrowing costs again. The divisions <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/inflation-trump-economy-federal-reserve-d6f4bbc6c458f73cd230c63e6abb1985\">have been exacerbated<\/a> by the convoluted nature of the economy: Inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/inflation-economy-spending-eaa913f6df77db354019d0d22a4b01fe\">remains elevated<\/a>, which would typically lead the Fed to keep its key rate unchanged, while hiring is weak and the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/jobs-unemployment-economy-trump-tariff-bf603d63e13d6dc1083e9a6616c7ffee\">unemployment rate has risen<\/a>, which often leads to rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p>Some economists expect three Fed officials could vote against the quarter-point cut that Powell is likely to support at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, which would be the most dissenting votes in six years. Just 12 of the 19 members vote on rate decisions. Several of the non-voting officials have also said they oppose another rate cut.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,\u201d said William English, an economist at the Yale School of Management and a former top Fed staff member. \u201cAnd the committee kind of likes to work by consensus, but this is a situation where that consensus is hard to reach.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The debate, which has also been fueled by a lack of official federal data on employment and inflation during the government shutdown, could be a preview of where the Fed is headed after Powell\u2019s term as chair ends in May. His successor will be appointed by President Donald Trump and is <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-federal-reserve-bessent-26f23d4bbccd2476e913c0e675fbffdc\">widely expected to be<\/a> Kevin Hassett, the top White House economic adviser. Hassett may push for faster cuts than other officials would be willing to support.<\/p>\n<p>English said the potential for greater disagreement could be seen as a sign of healthy debate between different views. The Fed\u2019s tradition of reaching unanimous or nearly-unanimous decisions has often been criticized as evidence of \u201cgroupthink.\u201d Yet some Fed officials warn that there are downsides to sharp splits. If the committee votes end up as 8-4 or even 7-5, then financial markets could lose confidence in where the central bank is headed next.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Governor Christopher Waller, for example, has said that in the case of a 7-5 vote, if just one official changed their view, it could bring about a significant shift in Fed policy.<\/p>\n<p>For now, however, most economists expect what\u2019s called a \u201chawkish cut\u201d \u2014 the Fed will reduce rates, while also signaling that it may stand pat for some time to assess the economy\u2019s health. (\u201cHawks\u201d refer to officials who generally support higher rates to combat inflation, while \u201cdoves\u201d more often support lower rates to boost hiring).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1898615\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone size-article_inline\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" lazyautosizes lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=620%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"A seal is seen before Federal\" width=\"8640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=620%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1\" data-attachment-id=\"1898615\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=620%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1 620w,https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=780%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1 780w,https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=810%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1 810w,https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=1280%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1 1280w,https:\/\/www.news-herald.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Federal_Reserve_20670-1.jpg?fit=1860%2C9999px&amp;ssl=1 1860w\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">FILE &#8211; A seal is seen before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell walks out to speak during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Sept. 17, 2025, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. (AP Photo\/Jacquelyn Martin, File)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Jeffrey Schmid, is expected to dissent for a second straight meeting in favor of keeping rates unchanged. He may be joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran, who was <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/federal-reserve-miran-trump-70a09bdf2e10839f35e1596cafe5c415\">hurriedly appointed<\/a> to the Fed\u2019s board by Trump in September, will likely dissent for a third straight meeting in favor of a larger, half-point reduction in the Fed\u2019s key rate.<\/p>\n<p>After the Fed\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/federal-reserve-cut-inflation-jobs-e689e1397856aa24ffebdaaefa9762a2\">last meeting Oct. 28-29<\/a>, several policymakers <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/inflation-trump-economy-federal-reserve-d6f4bbc6c458f73cd230c63e6abb1985\">said<\/a> they would prefer to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting, leading Wall Street investors to briefly downgrade the odds of a third rate cut to less than 30%. But then John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that this year\u2019s uptick in inflation appears to be a temporary blip driven by Trump\u2019s tariffs that would likely fade by the middle of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, \u201cI still see room for a further adjustment\u201d in the Fed\u2019s short-term rate, Williams said. As president of the New York Fed and vice chair of the rate-setting committee, Williams gets to vote on every interest rate decision and is close to Powell. Analysts said it was unlikely Williams would have made such a statement without Powell\u2019s support. Investors rapidly lifted the odds of a cut, which now are at 89%, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME Fedwatch<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019re seeing the power of the chair,\u201d said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and also a former top Fed staffer. \u201cMembers of the committee, my instinct is, are wanting to underscore their support for Powell.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Powell has come under relentless attack from Trump, who just last month said he would \u201clove to fire his ass\u201d and called Powell \u201cthis clown.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is required by Congress to seek low inflation and maximum employment, two goals that are potentially in conflict.<\/p>\n<p>For now, Powell and many other Fed officials are more concerned about hiring and unemployment rather than inflation. While the official government jobs reports have been delayed, in September the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the third straight increase and the highest in four years.<\/p>\n<p>Payroll provider ADP, meanwhile, reported that in November, its data showed companies shed 32,000 jobs. And many large firms have <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/layoffs-us-economy-job-numbers-cd9d657cb7d7b4429f2c8346e18f8840\">announced sweeping layoffs.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Worries that the job market could get worse are a key reason a rate cut in December is likely \u2014 but not necessarily beyond that. Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider when they meet in late January. Those figures could show inflation remains stubbornly high or that hiring has rebounded, which would suggest further cuts aren\u2019t needed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat they may end up agreeing to do is cut rates now, but give some guidance \u2026 that signals that they\u2019re on pause for a while after that,\u201d Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed\u2019s 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided over whether to lower borrowing costs again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wholesalemicro.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}